Chinese Property Developers 2021 Outlook: On the Recovery Path

China’s full-year total contracted sales and GFA rose 8.7% and 2.6% year-on-year in 2020, respectively. Going forward, we foresee this steady growth momentum to persist in 2021, mainly supported by Tier 1 and some leading Tier 2 cities. The contracted sales is expected to rise by c. 5% in 2021, mainly driven by the higher ASP in high-tier cities. At the same time, the contracted sales GFA will likely be flat or record a low single-digit growth.